What News

USD/IDR : 9325
Strong push from the owner :)
Oil : $128.42
the logic why we had a price hike!
yet still wonder where do they put the windfall profit?

Quote of the day :

BBM Naik Tinggi, susu tak terbeli
Orang Pintar Tarik subsidi, anak kami kurang gizi
(Iwan Fals)

Monday

Wake up little late at 6.30, kuppy shut down the alarm..
could not get sleep well because of mosquitos attack, can not figure out how can they enter the room...it's not an ordinary attack, they have new strategy now i guess..the wife fought with them all nite with her WMD's aka mosquito racket.
with still eyes shut, enjoyed tea and A-mild..what a bad habit
had a blue color in the sky..likely it will be a beautiful day..
street little bit empty..
had my breakfast as first thing to do when i got to the office

brought my ibanez to the office, rehearse for the company birthday
it have been quite sometimes i didnt play it...
cant believe they still believe me to play the lead :D...

plans of dweek :

Monday : playing band
Tuesday : golf driving (tentative)
Wednesday : Badminton
Thursday : Futsal (tentative)
Friday : Free....
weekend : Wife's time

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is it a good song to play?

Wonder Women
by Mulan Jameela

Intro : Em

G
kamu tipu aku lagi
C
mungkin sudah 1000 kali
Am Em
tak tau kapan akan berakhir
D C
sgala penyiksaan ini

G
kamu tampar aku lagi
C
dengan penyakit lamamu
Am Em
semakin lama aku pun bisa
D C
menjadi benar-benar gila

Reff :
C
aku bukan wonder womanmu
D
yang bisa terus menahan
Am F Em
rasa sakit karna mencintaimu
C
hatiku kini bukanlah hati
D
yang tercipta dari besi dan baja
Am F Em
hatiku kini bisa remuk dan hancur

G
kamu paksa aku
C
menerima cintamu lagi
Am Em
dengan segala tingkah lakumu
D C
yang membuatku bingung

G
kamu tahan aku
C
dengan memikatku lagi
Am Em
kau pikir aku akan mencair
D C
dengan rayuanmu

Int : G C Am Em D C 2x

Coda : Em

Curug Cilember

Curug (waterfalls) Cilember is a natural tourist spot in bogor about 70 km from jakarta. it's a waterfalls with 7 continous level where to reach each spot should takes several minutes walking and hiking. The area is relatively clean, natural and well managed so tourist feel comfort to stay there. To get there, it have very narrow and steep road about 7 km from highway.

preparation : the kuppy prepared my stuff which means got to bring too many, thx anyway.

leaving the office at 7 pm, and met again in meeting point after highway. Timmie left behind because got stuck in traffic, finally arrived at meeting point at 8.30. We have five cars in convoy. At meeting point we have dinner a'la sundanesse...yummy. Leaving from the meeting poin, we cruised narrow and very steep road, which the steepest road i ever had with timmie though its no problem for her.

From car parking area, we still had to hike about 1 km to get to the villa. The villa is right in front the water fall, only heard the noise of fall water without seeing them because its a quite dark nite. Some Guys prepare for the logistics :), while the other sitting around with exausted face...

We didnt have a sleep all nite, played black jack and had a lots of smiles and laughs...untill 3 pm i was the richest one but got broke in the end of the game...

In the morning some guys hunting for photograph..they all are photographer where their case only fill with lenses...for me i prefer being shot than shoot a picture :)...

07 am me went home, the rest of the guy went home at noon...got to went home early because the kuppy was home alone n upset because she couldn't reach my phone..sorry its blank spot there

Harpitnas, OTW Curug Cilember (National 'Sandwiched' Day, OTW Cilember Water Falls)

Dari Tim Riset :

Hari Jum'at (16/05) rupiah ditutup menguat pada level 9.285 va opening di level 9.295 setelah bergerak dikisaran 9.277 - 9.309. Rupiah kembali menguat menyusul aksi profit taking pasar. Aksi jual dollar kembali marak setelah tidak kuat bertahan di atas level 9.300 an. sementyara itu, penguatan IHSG naiknya harga obligasi pemerintah ikut mensupport rupiah.

Hari ini rupiah diperkirakan bergerak rangebound dengan kecenderungan konsolidasi. Pelemahan Dollar terhadap major currency dipicu weaker data AS cenderunga mengurangi tekanan terhadap rupiah. Sementara itu, harga minyak dunia yang kembali bertengger di atas level $ 126 masih memicu sentimen negatif terhadap rupiah. Buy 9.295 stop 9.275 or sell 9.310 stop 9.315.

............................................................................................

Besok libur, ntar malem mo pergi ke curug cilember. Estimasi perjalanan 1,5 jam, rombongan temen-temen kantor....cowok only. si kuppy ditinggal di rumah (hihi ada semengnye juga dia, tempat tidur luaaass). acara di sono main kartu trus paginya hiking...

bawa mobil sendiri, mau nyoba si timmie...rem baru, filter JFC sama spacer a'la Coen Motor Sport...secara akhir2 ini cuman berkutat di sekitar rumah..saatnya coba keluar kota..

laporan detailnya nyusul deh plus poto-potonya


From our Market Research Guy :

Last Friday (16/05/08) IDR closed strengthen at level 9.285 vs 9.295 at the opening, actually USD/IDR moved at range 9.277-9.309. Profit taking actually made the Rupiah strengthen. USD sell ignited after it could not breach 9.300, meanwhile JSI and govt bond market also support rupiah.

Today, USD/IDR will move rangebound with consolidation trend. Dollar weak treend againts major ccy as weaker US Data, ease pressure on rupiah. Yet, oil price at $126 still give negative sentiment on rupiah. buy 9.295 stop 9275. sell 9310 stop 9315.

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day off tomorrow, tonite gotta go to Cilember waterfall. Estimation driving time 1.5 hour, male only camp...kuppy stay at home. Agendas are...gambling in the night...hiking in the morning...

take out my timmie...after some while only drive in the city...its time to go out to try new air filter, brake pad..and spacer throttle body a'la coen motor sport

will post detail report later...

Volatility (raw material of an option)

Volatility most frequently refers to the standard deviation of the change in value of a financial instrument with a specific time horizon. It is often used to quantify the risk of the instrument over that time period. Volatility is typically expressed in annualized terms, and it may either be an absolute number ($5) or a fraction of the mean (5%). Volatility can be traded directly in today's markets through options and variance swaps.

For a financial instrument whose price follows a Gaussian random walk, or Wiener process, the volatility increases as time increases. Conceptually, this is because there is an increasing probability that the instrument's price will be farther away from the initial price as time increases. However, rather than increase linearly, the volatility increases with the square-root of time as time increases, because some fluctuations are expected to cancel each other out, so the most likely deviation after twice the time will not be twice the distance from zero.

More broadly, volatility refers to the degree of (typically short-term) unpredictable change over time of a certain variable. It may be measured via the standard deviation of a sample, as mentioned above. However, price changes actually do not follow Gaussian distributions. Better distributions used to describe them actually have "fat tails" although their variance remains finite. Therefore, other metrics may be used to describe the degree of spread of the variable. As such, volatility reflects the degree of risk faced by someone with exposure to that variable.

Historical volatility (or ex-post volatility) is the volatility of a financial instrument based on historical returns. This phrase is used particularly when it is wished to distinguish between the actual volatility of an instrument in the past, and the current (ex-ante, or forward-looking) volatility implied by the market.

ANY IDEAS?
(taken from wikipedia)

The Beginning

Nulis? aktifitas yang sangat sangat jarang gw lakuin..

kayaknya siy lebih enakan baca, dengerin, ngomong nonton..
tadi pagi agak telat, setelah semalem main bulutangkis ampe malem
istri manyun nungguin gw main..
setelah agak bergegas, akhirnya nyampe kantor 7.20

seperti biasa, kebiasaan pagi..makan sop mi bogor..pedes and panas
karena semalem udah olahraga abis-abisan..agak halal juga keliatannya makan yg berlemak..
aku olahraga sekarang minimal semimggu tiga kali bo'
nyampe ruangan..eee....ada yang ulang tahun..udah deh kite santep tuh bakso ha ha..

7.55
nyiapin kerjaan, bikin blotter..
market rupiah loncat lagi euy...closing kemaren 9.280
sekarang udah 9.300...watching dulu ah




writing? its not me for sure..

its better to listen, watch, read or even talk
wake up little late this morning after played badminton all nite (undefeated nite)
the wife looked bored as watching me play the game...
actually, she was the one who wanted to watch

finally, got to the office at 7.20 am
morning ritual, eat 'sop mi bogor' the hottest and spiciest in Amigos*
have played badminton all nite, looks right to consume high contamine fat food
fyi, i do sport at least 3X a week (what a sportsman i am)
up in the office...l0ts of food..friend birthday..
to honor him, got to feed again with 'bakso' ha ha

7.55 am
prepare to work again
ooops..USD/IDR still jump up

got to watch the market again


* Amigos, agak minggir got sedikit
Amigos, barely on top ditch